Is it time for China to prioritize pan-genotypic regimens for treating patients with hepatitis C?

INTRODUCTION: The treatment of hepatitis C has entered the pan-genotypic era, but the effectiveness is not good for the genotype 3b patients who have a large proportion in China. The guidelines for hepatitis C recommend the use of gene-specific regimens when the regional 3b prevalence rate greater than 5%. This study is to explore rationality of this proportion and the cost-effectiveness to implement pan-genotypic regimens in China. METHODS: A decision Markov model was developed from the health system perspective to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness between pan-genotypic and gene-specific treatment regimens for hepatitis C patients. Additionally, we set a regional genotype 3b patient proportion of 0-100% to explore at which proportion it is necessary to perform genotype identification and typing therapy on patients. Model parameters were derived from published literature and public databases. Effectiveness was measured by cured patient numbers, newly diagnosed cases of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, need for liver transplantation, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost-effectiveness outcomes included costs and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The 1-3 times 2022 Chinese per capita gross domestic product was used as the willingness-to-pay threshold. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the uncertainty of the model parameters. RESULTS: Compared with gene-specific regimens, pan-genotypic regimens resulted in an additional 0.13 QALYs and an incremental cost of $165, the ICER was $1,268/QALY. From the view of efficacy, the pan-genotypic regimens cured 5,868 more people per 100,000 patients than gene-specific regimens, avoiding 86.5% of DC cases, 64.6% of HCC cases, and 78.2% of liver transplant needs. Identifying 3b patients before treatment was definitely cost-effectiveness when their prevalence was 12% or higher. The results remained robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In China, the prioritized recommendation of pan-genotypic therapeutics proves to be both cost-effective and efficacious. But, in regions where the prevalence of genotype 3b exceeds 12%, it is necessary to identify them to provision of more suitable therapies.

A network meta-analysis of efficacy and safety for first-line and second/further-line therapies in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative, advanced breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HR + /HER2 -) advanced breast cancer is a prevalent subtype among postmenopausal women. Despite the growing number of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) exploring this topic, the efficacy and safety of first-line and second/further-line treatments remain uncertain. Accordingly, our aim was to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of these therapies through network meta-analysis. METHODS: RCTs were identified by searching Pubmed, Embase, and major cancer conferences. The efficacy of interventions was assessed using the hazard ratios (HRs) of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), while safety was indicated by the incidence of any grade adverse events (AEs), grade 3-5 AEs, AEs leading to treatment discontinuation, and AEs leading to death. Both time-variant HRs fractional polynomial models and time-invariant HRs Cox-proportional hazards models were considered for handling time-to-event data. Safety indicators were analyzed using Bayesian network meta-analysis. Additionally, subgroup analyses were conducted based on patient characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 41 RCTs (first-line 17, second/further-lines 27) were included in the analysis. For first-line treatment, the addition of Cyclin-dependent kinase 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) inhibitors to endocrine therapy significantly improved therapeutic efficacy in terms of both PFS and OS, demonstrating the best performance across all mechanisms. Specifically, the combination of Abemaciclib and Letrozole demonstrated the most favorable performance in terms of PFS, while Ribociclib plus Fulvestrant yielded the best outcomes in OS. Incorporating the immune checkpoint inhibitor Avelumab into the regimen with CDK4/6 inhibitors and selective estrogen receptor degraders significantly enhanced both PFS and OS in second-line or later treatments. Regarding safety, endocrine monotherapy performed well. Regarding safety, endocrine monotherapy performed well. There is mounting evidence suggesting that most CDK4/6 inhibitors may demonstrate poorer performance with respect to hematologic AEs. However, additional evidence is required to further substantiate these findings. CONCLUSIONS: CDK4/6 inhibitors, combined with endocrine therapy, are pivotal in first-line treatment due to their superior efficacy and manageable AEs. For second/further-line treatment, adding immune checkpoint inhibitors to CDK4/6 inhibitors plus endocrine therapy may produce promising results. However, to reduce the results' uncertainty, further trials comparing these novel treatments are warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registration number: PROSPERO (CRD42022377431).

Economic evaluation of the screening for Alzheimer's disease in China.

Background: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the screening in mainland China for Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients aged over 60. Methods: Individuals in mainland China, received an initial screening by questionnaire on mental state, and those with scores deemed suspicious for AD were referred to diagnostic tests. A 9-state Markov model was developed to simulate the disease progression of a cohort of 100,000 subjects aging from 60 to 80. In addition, several scenarios were analyzed to assess the robustness under different screening frequency, starting age, the duration of drug effects, and the health status of subjects. Results: The ICER of AD screening was 26413.77 USD per QALY [quality-adjusted life-year (QALY)] compared with no screening. The number of deaths and severe AD cases who did not receive treatment averted by screening accounted for 0.076 and 0.006% of the total population, respectively, and the net monetary benefit was 128.29 USD per capita. Under the thresholds of one and three times the gross domestic product per capita, the probability of screening being cost-effective was approximately 18 and 77%, respectively. The ICER decreased to 18132.96USD per QALY when the drug effect was prolonged, and increased when the frequency of screening was increased, the starting age was postponed, and patients suffering from comorbidities were more. However, the number of severe AD cases and deaths declined when the screening frequency increased. Conclusion: Screening for AD in individuals over 60 can reduce the numbers of severe AD cases and deaths and may be cost-effective, depending on factors such as screening frequency, starting age of screening, and duration of drug effects. Additionally, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is an important stage at which the burden of progression to AD may be reduced and the cost-effectiveness of screening may be improved.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of colonoscopy and fecal immunochemical testing for colorectal cancer screening in China.

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the colorectal cancer screening in China, and that when the screening was implemented in a specific region. Methods: A 13-state Markov model was established to compare four screening protocols, including annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT1), biennial fecal immunochemical testing (FIT2), electronic colonoscopy every 10 years (e-CSPY10), and electronic colonoscopy every 5 years (e-CSPY5), with no screening from the perspective of Chinese healthcare system. The model simulated the health states of a cohort of 100,000 average-risk individuals aging from 50 to 75. Additionally, scenarios including the implementation in a specific region, starting from 40, and incompletely successful treatment of cancer were also analyzed. Results: Annual and biennial FIT could save 8.13USD (US Dollar) and 44.96USD per person, and increase 0.0705QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) and 0.2341 QALYs compared with no screening, respectively. Annual FIT could decrease costs by 36.81USD per person and increase 0.1637 QALYs in comparison to biennial FIT. The results showed that both annual and biennial FIT for screening were dominant over no screening, and annual FIT was dominant over biennial FIT. The ICER (Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio) for e-CSPY10 were 1183.51USD/QALY and 536.66USD/QALY compared with FIT1 and FIT2. The ICER for e-CSPY5 were 1158.16USD/QALY and 770.85USD/QALY compared with FIT1 and FIT2. And the ICER for e-CSPY5 relative to e-CSPY10 was 358.71USD/QALY. All the ICER values were lower than the economic threshold of 2021 Chinese GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita in 2021(12554.42USD). Conclusions: It is worthwhile to popularize CRC screening in mainland China, as FIT always saving costs and colonoscopy is cost-effective. Regions with high income can take electronic colonoscopy every 10 years, or even every 5 years into consideration when determining the specific strategies.